that's it for me. i'm wolf blitzer in t"the situation room". tonight the nation's unemployment rate drops to its lowest level in 2 1/2 years but job growth is ateam innic and president obama is open to all of the advice he can get. or is he? >> he gives me advice all the time. >> i just want to -- i would say, again, this announcement today, the reason you should be encouraged by this, you can run the numbers and see how many jobs he announced. >> always fun to see those guys together. tonight, a shocking ad campaign insulting american jews paid for by the government of israel. >> christmas. >> but up first tone the

dramatic reshuffling of the race for president and a rare inside look at the focus groups used to help with the strategy decisions. suppose you're herman cain, trying to decide whether your candidacy can survive, or newt gingrich testing whether your rise in the polls can sustain tough scrutiny now of your record. >> who is newt gingrich? >> grandfather. >> grant father. who else? >> my uncle joe. >> your uncle joe. >> who else? >> it would be my favorite uncle. you know, he speaks boldly, positively but softly at the same time. >> anybody else? >> grant father. >> yeah, he might be that uncle but he'd keep bringing in different wives. >> plenty to go around. >> okay. >> more from that focus group in a moment. but those first, why those impressions of gingrich, former massachusetts governor mitt romney matter so much right now. cain is at home tonight in georgia to talk face to face with his wife, the biggest

deciding factor in whether he will continue his now struggling campaign. most top aides believe he will fight on but friends outside of politics say the cain candidacy is in its final hours. >> i am reassessing because of all of this media firestorm stuff. why? because my wife and family comes first. i've got take that into consideration. i don't doubt the support that i have. just look at the people that are here. we've got to look at what happens to contributions and look at -- we have to re-evaluate the whole strategy. tomorrow and in atlanta i will be making an announcement. nobody's going to get me to make that prematurely. >> as we await the announcement, you need proof cain is struggling? a new iowa poll tonight shows cain with just 8 percent support, one month before the caucuses, way down from 23% for cain a month ago. newt gingrich is winning some cain converts, part of his

surge in the national and and key state polls. more and more republicans a few weeks ago predicted a quick romney victory see a drawn-out gingrich/romney race. what do republican voters think of that choice. a peek at a focus group, republican voters are conducted last night virginia. to help, peter hart who led the discussion and our chief political an lift gloria borger on hand to watch it. i want to look at the fascinating romney/gingrich views of your voters last night. but first, herman cain has a big decision to make. by this time tomorrow night, we're likely to know it. what, when you brought up herman cain, peter, to you first, to this group of republican voters, do they think he can sustain this or do they think he's done? >> done. >> done? >> pure and simple. when they talked about him, they just had huge problems. both substantively that he didn't know enough to be president, and the other side was that he really on a moral basis, particularly with harassment charges, were things

that bothers people. >> none of what we had seen, he's new, different? >> none of it. not even the like ability. the words that stuck to me, sitting behind the mir, was that he has no chance and he's unelectable about and he's a goner as far as they're concerned. they're over herman cain. >> as we wait mr. cain's decision, we know gingrich has surges, romney is struggling but has a formidable organization and a lot of money. focus groups are fascinating. you're a master at this. one of the devices you use, imagine this candidates a member of your family, your big, extended family to this group of republican voters, the question, in your big family, who is mitt romney? >> who is mitt romney? >> black sheep. >> cousin. >> okay. good. >> second removed cousin. >> uncle. >> see him as close? can you relate to him or distant? >> distant. >> distant. >> why distant?

>> he's richer than the rest of us so he wouldn't come to our events. >> it's interesting. distant, black sheep, richer than us not like us. when you're trying to build a connect with voters, those are flashing warning signs, right? >> more than flashing warning signs. he hasn't made an emotional connection. suppose he and sixth in line, waiting to get on a plane they said what would he do? he would buy the airlines or buy a ticket, do something. >> pay-off. >> a pay-off of some type. all of this says there's a distance. the other side they see him as competent, smart, they see him as a businessman. those things work for him. >> just one second. one of the reasons we're showing this to viewers the campaigns do this, too. peter does this part of academic research and for other institutions. the campaigns do this. we know the romney campaign knows just what you just saw. their focus groups they get the

same thing. gloria, ann romney, parade magazine, when millions pick up the newspaper, david gergen did an interview with mitt romney and ann romney is in there. he has silly side. he loves to roll on the floor with our grandkids. >> you're not seeing the warm and fuzzy grandfather type. look, i think what i got from the focus group, correct me if i'm wrong in lots of ways he has their respect but he done have their affection. there's not a warm feeling about mitt romney, and there's also a little bit of a sense he could betray them at some point because they do see him as a flip-flopper. >> first, you want a personal connection with voters. you say he didn't have it. if you don't have that, you want them to think this is my guy, he's going to fight for me an all of my issues. do you trust mitt romney as a republican? >> like someone like newt gingrich, you know exactly what

he thinks and all all the time. i don't know. >> yeah. >> i think it's a personality thing. >> i think that he has strong morals but he would cave in easily, that's what was necessary to get the public's interest. >> he's what? >> i rhino. >> what does a rhino me? >> republican in name only. >> okay. >> push came to shove, he would easily side, give up a founding principle that republican party just -- >> how many agree with ben, he's a rhino? >> if you're trying to win a republican primary, this is an ideological contest, the republican party if they think they're republican in name only, you've got a problem. >> a big problem. and the difficulty here is that they see him as ungrounded. somebody who has no political principles whatever it takes to win. so they respect him in terms of his intellect, his character, in terms of his family status, but the difficulty is they don't

trust him or like him. >> can i just say, the good news for romney here is that they feel this way about newt gingrich to a certain degree. that they believe that newt gingrich has flip-flopped on his positions as well. >> right back into the focus group. republicans have to make this choice. romney's got a lot of money, he's in the race to stay. gingrich is starting to raise money. those are two the leading candidate. cain is going down. if you're look at romney/gingrich. what do you think of gingrich? >> i think when you enter a race that's this important you have to know from the get-go what your stand is and stick with it, period. >> that's why i described him earlier as volatile. >> good. >> i think he'd -- i can see you changing your opinion on one issue, but these are multiple issues and i think that's -- that raises a red flag. >> you have republican voters, peter and gloria, looking at two leading candidates at the moment, mitt romney and newt

gingrich, and there's not a lot of trust. they view them both as compromisers, flip-floppers. help me. >> flawed. flawed candidates. each have their own separate problems. mitt has a passion gap. newt as all of the passion but over the top, they can trust him, they're not sure where he's at. both are going to be tested. the public needs to know more. they need to get a better sense. >> they're enthusiastic about beating barack obama burke what i got from a couple of the people there last night was that there weren't sure anyone in this field of candidates could actually get it done. and so there's a lot of concern about that and a lot of sort of well, maybe this wasn't the best field we could have produced. >> help me, lastly, some people watching who say, peter hart, he's the dean of the democratic pollsters, why should i trust him leading a focus group of republicans. explain why you do this. >> is aimed at getting downneath.

i have to rain explain i do thi the university of pennsylvania public policy center. i'm an x-ray technician, going in, finding out what people are thinking, this is what came out. all is on c-span so you can see it all. it's neutral. >> always illuminating. >> if you need an x-ray of this sort, this is the guy you want to do it whether republican, democrat, agnostic. a fascinating campaign. you do it with independents and democrats down the road. >> absolutely. >> thank you both. the israeli government's ad campaign suggesting american jews aren't good enough. next the unemployment rate is heading down. but is it for the right reasons? it's like having portable navigation. a bluetooth connection. a stolen vehicle locator. roadside assistance. and something that could help save your life - automatic help in a crash. it's the technology of five devices in one hard-working mirror. because life happens while you drive.

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it can't, cannot, be a bad thing, the unemployment rate fell significantly, from 9% down to 8.6%. the question is this, how good is this news? that's more difficult to answer. president obama, as you might expect, emphasizes the positive. >> the unemployment rate went down and despite some strong headwinds this year the american economy's now created, in the private sector, jobs for the past 21 months in a row.

that's nearly 3 million new jobs in all. and more than 500,000 over last four months. so, we need to keep that growth going. >> but there are signs of trouble, and lots of them in the data as well. let's go behind the numbers with mark zandy. let's look at the numbers, mark, 8.6 unemployment rate down from 9.0, that's good. 120,000 jobs net, added in november. the unemployment rate at the lowest point since march 2009. that has to make you smile. yet officially, more than 13 million americans still unemployed, 315,000 people flat out just stopped looking for work. and that's the troubling part, right? the rate goes down, not because jobs are being created but hundreds of thousands of americans gave up. >> well, john, there is good news. we did create jobs and the increase in employment helped to bring down the unemployment rate.

you're right, one of the key reasons for the large decline in unemployment people did give up, the labor force did decline, that's not a positive sign. that's not encouraging. so there's good and bad in the report. net-net, i'll take it. unemployment rate is moving in right direction. >> one of the conversations we've had for months is are we at danger in falling into a double-dip recession. most people think you'd like double. is this prof month after month we can set aside the double dip talk? >> unless something very bad happens in another part of the world, and the part of the world we should be most worried about is europe. yes, i think you're absolutely right, john. i think this should give us some confidence that the recovery, albeit slower than people would like, is really gaining solid footing but i don't think the recovery's strong enough that it could sustain a big external

shock. and europe still has potential to pose that kind of a shock to the u.s. economy. >> important reminder there. mark, i asked you this every time, not only do americans care about this, one american in particular cares about this, the president of the united states, where do we think the rate will be a year from now. november 2009, 9.9%, november 2010, 9.8, november 2011, progn 2012, when people are about to vote? >> i don't think we're going it make a lot of progress, john. we're going to create enough jobs to ensure that is unemployment rate remains roughly where it is. if you told me come this time next year the unemployment rate is somewhere around 8.5%, 9%, i'd say that sounds right to me. >> look at patient, piece by piece. look at retail, 50,000 jobs added last month. some of that probably seasonal but that's a good number to see that good up. health care consistently doing well, 17,000 jobs last month. that's a good number.

manufacturing, just 2,000. government, shedding another 20,000 jobs. that continues to happen. construction, down 12,000. the made in america front, that's not a strong enough number, is it? >> no, it's not. and i think in terms of, you know what are the unpleasant details a little bit beneath the headline figure that manufacturing number is one of the ones that jumps out because at the beginning of the recovery, one of the stories people were starting to tell with some enthusiasm, a bright spot is manufacturing in the u.s. is picking up. this is a great long-term sign. it means that that is going to be a steady source of good jobs. and also, it's a great indicator of a powerful ripple effect across the economy because there's investment in factories and so on. i fine that number discouraging. the other thing that i think is worth pointing out is the drag that the loss of government jobs is putting on the employment

numbers overall. and this really is a pretty perverse situation that we're in at a time when unemployment remains, i think, at real crisis levels, the government is actually, you know, shooting the economy in the foot by laying people off and adding to the ranks of the unemployed. >> it's happening mostly at state level because they don't have money to keep people on. one of the questions, because of that, the crisis point, what to do about it. here in washington, and one of the big debates is extending a payroll tax cut put in place. democrats and republicans want to do it but having to fight over how to play for it. listen to how important the president says that payroll tax cut is to stimulating the compete. >> now's not the time to slam the brakes on the recovery. right now it's time to step on the gas. >> does he have a point, mark? the debate has become not only how to pay for this, democrats want to tax on millionaires, republicans want to find some other way to pay for it within the budget. but there are some people who were for the payroll tax cut a

year ago who say they've watched it it implemented they don't see a stimulative effect and think it done give the economy a boost so we can't afford it. are they right? >> no, i think it's very important to extend the payroll tax holiday for another year. it's a lot of money to u.s. households, $120 billion. and as pointed out the recovery's fragile, quite weak, and i don't think we can gracefully digest a tack increase of $120. it's very important to extend. i think it needs to be paid for, not paid for in 2012, but 2013 and beyond. and i think the democrats and republicans need to figure out a way to come to some compromise, pay for this and get it done because it's very important for the economy, particularly early 2012, when the economy will be at its most vulnerable. >> most in washington think they'll figure out something on this one. but isn't it proof, especially with every day we get closer to the campaign environment, on

these relatively modest proposals that might help the economy a little bit or at least put a band-aid on the economy, the partisan divide makes it more difficult for the government to do anything to help? >> yes, absolutely. i think it's prizing that we're seeing such staunch republican opposition to extending a tax break, right? it's been so central to the republican ideology in the latest cycle that taxes are evil. it's surprising to me to see them effectively, as mark points out everybody advocating what would amount to a tax hike. so i think in terms of the politics, the president has the higher ground on this one. >> thanks so much. >> thank you. smart economics conversation. let's tack a loeser look at the politics. the job situation during the obama presidency. the unemployment rate here, down 8.6%. the president certainly would welcome that. take a look at it over time. remember, what happened when the president first took office, deep in a recession, the economy

was bleeding, bleeding jobs into the red. then you had quarters of big growth and people got encouraged, then back down. now we've had growth, some not great, but at least growth and a positive side since then. every president is judged of course by the economy when they seek re-election. we'll go back here through the george h. bush administration, the clinton administration, the bush administration and the obama administration. george h.w. bush ran for re-election in here. look at the record here. plus 872, 872,000 jobs they created. he lost his re-election campaign because of the economy and again the unemployment rate was up shy of 8%. come into the clin years, this number is the envy of every president, plus 8.2 million in november 1995, the year before his re-election. president clinton running with a low rate, in his re-election campaign. president bush, it was not positive. he was minus, net 2.1 million

jobs in his presidency but that was 345,000 up from his low. the bush administration lost jobs early on, started to come back a bit. he managed to win re election, despite that. take a look where president obama is a year out. minus 1.1 million job is the net. if you add up the obama administration from beginning to now. slight reason for optimism at the white house, that's off the low. that's 2.4 million up off the low. i showed you the beginning, all of the jobs bleeding out. this is not a great number but it's better than it was. just several months ago. so president obama carrying this, a tough, tough record to dme carry into re-election at least it's better now than not so long ago. the ad campaign sparking outrage. israel's ambassador to the united states had to call home to complain. >> now [ale anuncer ] the lexus december to remember sales event is here, but only for a limited time. see your lexus dealer.

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israeli government abruptly cancel an advertising campaign after complaints from american jewish leaders it was insulting. in a nutshell, ads paid for by the israeli government suggested american jews are not good enough partners for israeli citizens and suggested israelis living among american jews are perhaps at risk of losing their religious and cultural i didn't. the inability of the american man to read hebrew is a source of misunderstanding with his israeli partner. >> oh, now i understand why you didn't want to go to the party. music, candles. why don't we just stay home

tonight? what is this? >> and here the grandparents in israel are aghast at their granddaughter's take on the holiday season. [ speaking foreign language ] >> christmas. >> those television ads in similar billboards in major american cities brought a wave of protests from american jewish leaders, much channeled through our guest, michael lawyer. mr. ambassador, thanks for being here. you picks up the telephone and called your prime minister, all the way to the top this morning, to deal with this, why? >> the minute i was made aware of this, i picks up the phone to prime minister netanyahu, the prime minister's office knew nothing about the ads, we knew nothing about the ads. the prime minister heard about them and he cares very deeply about his relationship with the american jewish community. he's aware of the sense

abilities he spent part of his childhood here and immediately ordered the ads off the air. >> intent was not to offend. you are an israeli citizen. you are the ambassador from israel to the united states. but you were born here in the united states. when you watch the ads, are you offended? can you understand how american jus would be offended? >> indeed. i can see how american jus might draw the wrong conclusions from them and as you know, as you said i was raised in this country i have kids living in israel and family members here, and the relationship between american jews and israel is essential to us, that relationship, that friendship, and we're committed to strengthening and enriching it and for that reason the prime minister acted swiftly to take the ads down. >> who's accountable? it's a small country. is this a conservative in the prime minister's government who is doing something perhaps the prime minister and the ambassador to the united states don't agree with, a coalition government you have partners in government who might have views to the right say than the ambassador to the united states? is that what happened here? >> no. it's not a matter of right and

left it's a cultural divide and being insufficiently sensitive to the hurt buttons of a certain community. because not only myself, but prime minister netanyahu who spent a lot of his growing up here in his childhood in this country, he was sensitive to it. he acted immediately to take these ads off the air. >> you say didn't intend to offend anyone. i want to read the statement from the immigration absorption ministry, the ministry that put up the ads. claims to which the israeli government is attempt toll intervene in the personal choices of u.s. jews or discount their lifestyle has no connection to reality. the immigration absorption ministry cherishes andvalues th jewish community. how can you mesh this statement with this? >> oh, now i understand why you didn't want to go to the party. music. candles. why didn't we just stay home

tonight? denna? what is this. >> we can stop there. you don't view that as an effort by the ministry to intervene in the personal choice of a u.s. jew, a gentleman who doesn't understand hebrew or discount their lifestyle? it's clearly an attempt to say he doesn't understand hebrew, he's not -- either not a real jew or not a good enough jew. >> that's not what it's saying. the remembrance day for fallen israeli soldiers is an intensely personal experience for israelis. hitting up against a cultural divide, few americans appreciate the depth of the sorrow that we experience on that day. what i have put an ad out like that? i would have thought many times before putting an ad like that and thought of seeing it through american jewish eyes. >> a taped conversation, and you're back in here in the evening before sundown to have this conversation, when is this over in the sense of the ads pulled, the billboards down, turn the page? the prime minister gave the

order immediately upon speaking to him, but there's a seven-hour difference. so i suspect by sunday, early next week, they'll be off the air. >> i have you here, i'm going to have you about something, the int interjekz of u.s.-israeli. organized by a leader here the other night, he said i try not to pat myself too much on the back. but this administration has done more in terms of the security of state of israel than any previous administration. and that's not just our opinion, that's the opinion of the israeli the government. you speak for the israeli government? is that your opinion? has barack obama been better for the security of israel than any previous president. >> president obama has made immense contributions to israel's security, security cooperation with israel and the united states is an excellent rate today. we've developed anti-missile technology that is absolutely ground breaking. we stood together in the face of terror in the face of iranian

nuclear sclags, an excellent relationship. >> done more than any previous administration? >> every administration contributes its own mix, its own contribution israeli security, but again the relationship today is truly outstanding. >> you would i guess prefer he not put your government in the middle of all of this? >> we have an interest, i'll be up front with you, john, we have an interest in bipartisan support in israel in this country, we have an historic bond between the state of israel and the people of the united states, both democrats and republicans. we want to keep it that way. >> mr. ambassador, appreciate it. thanks for coming in. still ahead, tonight's number will climb tomorrow. but will that be the end? next, a washington tradition. a late friday document, this time involving one of the most controversial programs. t pick . a new belt. some nylons. and what girl wouldn't need new shoes? we talked about getting a diamond. but with all the thank you points i've been earning... ♪

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welcome back. the latest news you need to know. 1400 pages of just released documents unveil an intense strug. when congress started asking questions about the fast and furious program. the government allows the illegal smuggling of u.s. guns to mexico's drug gangs. house ethics committee announce it's found probable cause to suspect misconduct by jesse jackson jr. for fund-raising with rod blagojevich. stocks closed flat today but it's the best week since july 2009 with the dow and nasdaq

posting gains of 7% or more. a walk to show you toint's number right now. help us frame the conversation just to come. our number. 197, that is as of tomorrow, how long herman cain will be in the republican race for president. 197 days. when we come back, he has a big decision tomorrow about whether or not he will stay in, how might that decision affect these guys? that's next.

"erin burnett outfront" coming up at the top of hour. a church is banning interracial couples. tell us about it. >> all right. that's right. this couple, a year ago, they went to a church, they lived in the town, she is white, marrying a black man, at that time they went to the church, they thought nothing of it, it was her family's church, and then this summer, when she and her then-fiance said we want to get married in the church, her parents went to the church, and the preacher said you know i don't want you to sing here anymore and they said, why? the preacher said because i don't want my 3-year-old granddaughter to see a white woman marrying a black man. i don't want that example. so we're going to talk to stella, the woman who was going to get married in the church. there's been changes in the church. find out what she's going to do now. and just talk about how this could still happen in this country. she's going to come out and tell her story for the first time. we're looking forward to that. >> we're looking forward to watching that as well. that's outrageous.

see you in a few minutes. thank you. we should know by this time tomorrow whether herman cain plans to continue his bid for the presidential nomination or drop out. cain arrived home this afternoon to talk face-to-face with his wife gloria. he plans to meet with major supporters and contributors, that tomorrow before a previously scheduled event at his new georgia campaign headquarters. today in south carolina he said he would have an announcement about his candidacy on saturday. >> that's god's plan. but god doesn't tell you his plan for you until he believes you are ready for those parts of the plan. so i believe that i'm on this journey, i'm on this journey for a reason, and i don't look back. i don't look back. >> should cain fight on and if he drops what would that mean to the gop race? cnn contributors, rolland

martin, penny nance. let's me ask you, first, penny, look at the polling where herman cain suffered the most, among republican women. >> of course. >> is he a viable candidate, or should he read that polling and other signs and say time to go? its not just with women he's in trouble but certainly that was the first place he started to slip. concerns women for america said from the beginning whether it's bill clinton, whether john edwards, whether it's herman cain, character counts. and so we believe, and we pushed back very strong against what lin wood said, that it's all about personal -- what happens in the bedroom stays in the bedroom and it's all about a person's personal life. we think once you become a candidate, it's public, and it's worth a discussion and conservative women want to know, we want to know what kind of man we're entrusting our country to. and also the future of our children, even their lives when it comes to the military. so we think we have a right to know. and it's a great concern. >> you mentions the lin wood

statement. i want to read it. here's what he said monday night. this appears to be an accusation of private, alleged consensual duck between adults a subject matter which is not proper subject of inquiry by the media or the public. no individual should be questioned about his or her private sexual life. you draw that line once you're a candidate for high office especially the presidency of the united states. >> i'm sure senator david vitter thought that was the case, i'm sure livingston thought that was the case and i'm nur newt gingrich thought that was the same thing when he had all of his issues several years ago. all of the questions are going to come out. what herman cain has to understand he admitted that he told one of his aides when he ran for u.s. senate in georgia several years ago, so to act like it wasn't going to come up when you're running for the high of the office in the land makes no sense whatsoever. absolutely, character matters because the -- american people want to trust the president. they want to trust when you send

troops into battle that you're making right call and if they say that you -- we can't -- if you're own wife can't trust you, how can we trust you with the nation's treasury? >> you know herman cain, he's home having a conversation with his wife. he also says he'll talk to contributors and supporters. i want viewers to hear more of what he said today in south carolina, and i want your read on whether it's a candidate putting his best face four or a candidate who plans to fight on. let's listen, first. >> i am reassessing because of all of the media firestorm stuff. why? because my wife and family comes first. i've got to take that into consideration. i don't doubt the support that i have. just look at people that are here. we've got to look at what happens to contributions and we've got re-evaluate the whole strategy. >> what's your gut tell you, eric? >> my gut tell me the campaign is over. i think the campaign is over and

the question now is, does he leave now with his implication hanging over him and so people then presume it -- he's guilty of an affair. forget harassment allegations, just the affair or does he save face and know the campaign is over but drag it out a while longer so he can leave after iowa and say you know it was because of iowa, not because of the affair, my wife is with me. you've never seen gloria cain on the campaign trail for herman. she's never been out there. she's a private person. when i took herman's job people told me she didn't want him running for office. she was afraid of what would happen. now she's being dragged into the media. he's going to have a very hard meeting with his wife. if you're going to stay in the race you don't announce on a saturday morning in atlanta. you go to iowa. >> you mentioned iowa. i want to remind viewers, we showed the numbers earlier, he's at 8% in iowa. he was at 31% a month ago. i personally don't think it's just because of the character questions.

i think that he couldn't answer the libya question, he's had -- he was a candidate of -- >> stumbled -- >> proof early on voters are looking for something different, hungry for not a traditional politician. so he had great appeal. if his decision is to let iowa make the decision for him, those polling would tell you it's about to be made. how does it impact gingrich and romney? >> well i think there's going to be -- it may not just be those two impacted, by the way. there's michele bachmann in the race, there's rick santorum in the race that conservatives like. we like both of them very much. >> when i was in iowa you could sense some santorum momentum. the question is, is it enough? >> of course. >> momentum to sky rocket him or get him to a respectable place. >> the candidates don't need to finish first, they need to do well. how well can they do? the cain supporters have to go somewhere. i don't think they'll go to romney. they will either go to gingrich or one of the others, in my opinion. >> all of the last three months i've said, look we can spend all

of our time looking at every single poll that comes out, who's doing well in florida in south carolina, and as we all know, none of that stuff matters really until december 1st because we knew when we were five weeks out of the actual voting all of a sudden you saw what was going to happen. so, what has happened? through all of this process, where's governor rick perry? and you're seeing all of a sudden newt gingrich rises, romney's still there, so it's shaking out naturally. this is why you have to have campaigns. this is why you get in the race and speak to editorial boards because this is a weeding out process, so it's no shock to me the numbers will change, even you take away the issue of a possible affair, you will see his numbers drop and see serious conditions, to be honest, all of a sudden rise. >> and eric, to the -- penny says she's not sure romney will benefit. there are questions, hard core conservatives don't think romney's one of them. if they pick up "parade" magazine this weekend, david

gergen did an interview with mitt romney. mormons are not permitted to smoke, drink alcohol or coffee, have premarital sex. has it been hard to follow those rules? being faithful to one's spouse is a source of passion and devotion in marriage and paying teethes as suggested by the book. >> the romney campaign being careful with whom and how often it does media interviews when they do things this is to try, try, try to make a personal connect which he has failed so far, right? >> yeah, very much so. they know, and looking at start of the show, the focus group, he does not have a personal connection with people. people respect him, they respect what he's done, but they're not sure about him. remember, conservatives are still very bitter with george w. bush for t.a.r.p. and the general motors bailout and immigration and harriette meyers. they feel like he started betraying him in the second term. a guy surround himself with bush supporters in his campaign, a guy who was the conservative

2008 mide of the road guy 2008,e road guy in 2012. they're not sure what to make of mitt romney. they respect him. they just don't trust him. >> when we come back, the truth about rick perry's efforts to revive his campaign. the lexus december to remember sales event is here, but only for a limited time. see your lexus dealer.

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tonight. >> that happens to everybody. >> then last night, it was leno, to make light of messing up the voting age while campaigning in new hampshire. >> what happened in new hampshire here? this is the most recent one. >> yeah. >> let's take a look here. >> those of you that will be 21 by november 12th, i ask for your support and your vote. those of you who won't be, just work hard. >> you and i, we grew up in that 21 voting age. i was thinking drinking age maybe. >> drinking age, drinking age. that makes sense. you got to have an excuse, right? so that's mine, and i'm sticking to it. >> so give the governor credit. he has a sense of humor and isn't afraid to poke fun at himself. the perry campaign is beyond struggling and with the first votes away it is lights out if he stumbles and needs to pay a visit to conaan and jimmy

fallon. governor perry may yet get one more chance. but emphasis on may, and more ebb emphasis if it comes on last chance. the truth is american voters peru proved time and time again they're a pretty forgiving bunch, but there are limits. this is a consequential election. not a late night tv revival tour. they have their own thoughts on whether governor perry is past the point of no run. you wrote on redstate.com, your blog, i think rek pirry may yet have a second coming if he's ready. i asked cain supporters where they would go. most anewt. the other perry. they almost say they would go to perry. romney is rarely their choice. possibliy lanother act. his march gin for error is what? >> his campaign strategy is based on luck. his campaign strategy is based on newt gingrich doing something, not rick perry doing

something. frankly, john, i'm not yet convinced, and i don't know that i can be convinced that if he gets a second look his campaign will be ready. one of the best assets is his campaign team has just come through a 2010 campaign. they knew how to set it up. the worst thing the campaign has is they still think it can be played national l lynationally, in texas. >> when you watch governor perry and he's stumbled himself into a tough box. you think what? >> beyond a texan, i'm a texas aggie graduate, i say, rick, take the aggie ring off. maybe it's the orange tie t long horn thing. this is what happens also, i believe, when you get in the case because so many other folks were pushing you and you got in so late. remember, we talked about this with wolf blitzer.

i said this is like the nfl draft. you can go number one in the draft. when you put the pads on, it's a whole dimpblt ball game. he's literally turning into the rye leaf and jamarcus russell. great on paper but one of the worst busts possible. it's unbelievable for someone with this much experience to be the governor of texas and then run this bad of a campaign, he might be last man standing. newt is getting arrogant with his comments. he might still be around. but he has to dominate every debate between now and iowa. >> you have a grass roots network. do you hear a lot of perry? >> texas alone we have 22 tho,0 members. texas is a big state for us. they love him. they think he's been very good for their state. >> do they recognize him on the presidential trail? >> they don't, actually.

i had such great expectations. they said you're not seeing the man that we know yet. we hope he has time to recover. let me tell you what you're seeing is not as good as he can do. he can be better. so i'm very hopeful. i hope that he gets another chance, takes a breath of fresh air and goes for it. >> i remember a lot of people in massachusetts saying that about micha michael dukakis. then we saw what happened to him. newt gingrich who was mentioned a moment ago, he is up in the polls. when you go up in the polls you get the kick me sign on your back. ron paul says i can't believe newt gingrich is the front-runner. >> fannie mae and freddie mac had to be bailed out. we had to pay those debts. here he was getting a lot of money from them. and it's not a conservative position. it's a bailout position. so he made money off the bailout. it's sort of ironic to think the american people now are seriously considering, you know,

that he is supposed to come in and straighten things out. that sort of is bewildering to me. >> everybody gets 10 or 15. will ron paul's attacks give newt gingrich a second or third look? >> they'll question newt gingrich because of paul's attacks. he rolls his career up the top of the hill and it tumbles back down every time. >> just what i would expect from a texan. >> that's a compliment. newt? >> newt stumbled a little today in the life issue. i hope that he cleans that up. but we have some concerns about things he said today. >> it's a fascinating campaign. we have one month from the iowa vote. we'll see you right here next week. we're heading out to iowa for a full week. that's monday, december 12th go to